Is civil war inevitable in Iraq?

At the end of any system is Chaos.  The period of chaos lasts until the
system finds a way to right itself, or crashes.  Think of any system as
if it were an airplane.  If something happens – such as the loss of an
engine – there is a period of chaos which is mitigated, hopefully, by
the pilot until the system again reaches a stasis or equilibrium which
is the “normal” state of the system in question.

Such is the case in Iraq.  The end of Sadaam’s regime started a period
of chaos.  The US presence doesn’t necessarily mitigate the chaos, it
may even contribute to it, since having a foreign army in your midst is
not the “normal” state for any sovereign government.  So what then would
mitigate the chaos?  Kapuscinski would say that it takes a generation to
work through this chaos.  Perhaps civil war is an inevitable effect of
the chaos, or maybe it is the mitigating factor that brings stasis back
to the system.  Either way, it seems civil war is inevitable.  And when
you wonder if we shouldn’t help STOP the civil war, imagine that the
French and English had come to America in 1863 and started a
peacekeeping mission which stopped the fighting.  Today we would still
live in a divided country with foreign peace keepers.

That isn’t to say war is justified, just that in some cases of
conflict, a victor must emerge and that is what the system requires…

“…A despot departs, but no dictatorship comes to a complete end at
this point. The condition for the existence of a dictatorship is the
ignorance of the crowd, which is why dictators tend this ignorance and
continually cultivate it. It takes a whole generation to change this, to
bring some enlightenment. Often, before this happens, those who
overthrew the dictator unwittingly behave like his heirs, continuing the
attitude and way of thinking that characterised his epoch – an epoch
which they themselves destroyed. This is so unintentional and
unconscious that if you point this out to them they are overcome with
righteous indignation…”


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